- The Nasdaq 100 rallied a bit in the early hours on Wednesday as the 21,000 level continues to be a major support level.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think you need to pay close attention to because it could give you an idea as to what risk appetite is doing at the moment.
- The Nasdaq 100 has shown itself to be rather resilient around the crucial 21,000 level, which has been very well supported for some time.
I also believe that the support probably extends down to the 20,500 level as well, and of course we also have the 200 day EMA racing towards that area also. With all of that being said, I think you've got a situation where traders are looking for short-term pullbacks to take advantage of, and they just got one.
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The Question Now Is…
So, the question now is whether or not we can break above the crucial 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, currently sitting at the 21,500 level, is a short-term barrier, but if we can break above there, then I think it's very likely that the NASDAQ 100 could go looking to the 22,000 level. It's probably worth noting that Nvidia reports after the bell during the session on Wednesday, and that will have a major influence on how people look at this index. Granted, it won't be the whole thing, but it's a big component of psychology.
Nvidia has been beaten down pretty solidly, so a surprise to the upside could get everybody positive for the day. If we were to break above the 22,000 level, then it's possible that we could go much higher. But that being said, I think you've got a situation where you continue to look at this through the prism of working off some of that excess froth that we had put into the market over the last several months. This is just the blip in the radar. And while perhaps you can make an argument that we have been somewhat lackluster since New Year Day, the reality is the market has been in a very strong uptrend going back quite some time.
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